CSAE WPS/2005-07, the geography of output volatility
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper examines the structural determinants of output volatility in developing countries, and especially the roles of geography and institutions. We investigate the volatility effects of market access, climate variability, the geographic predisposition to trade, and various measures of institutional quality. We find an especially important role for market access: remote countries are more likely to have undiversified exports and to experience greater volatility in output growth. Our results are based on Bayesian methods that allow us to address formally the problem of model uncertainty and to examine robustness across a wide range of specifications. JEL Classifications: O11, E30
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Department of Economics . University of Oxford . Manor Road Building . Oxford OX1 3UQ T: +44 (0)1865 271084 . F: +44 (0)1865 281447 . E: [email protected] . W: www.csae.ox.ac.uk *International Monetary Fund, [email protected]. This work was prepared while the author was a Post doctoral Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Global Economic Development, Department of Economics,...
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